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A shrinking wage gap, productivity differences, and stronger Chinese currency mean that, while it is still less expensive to manufacture products in China, the savings aren’t as great as they used be. Instead of costing a quarter or a third of what it costs here, the BCG projects that by 2015, manufacturing in China will only be 10 to 15 percent cheaper than in the U.S, and this is before “soft” costs are even considered.

When you look at these softer costs — things like the cost of managing the supply chain and transporting product from half a world away, along with the intellectual property risks inherent in manufacturing overseas — the case for U.S. manufacturing looks pretty strong. Add in “hidden” costs like the cost of negative image over the treatment of workers overseas, and the case looks stronger still.

Making the picture even rosier, are energy prices. The emergence of shale gas on our shores is helping to lower energy costs. Obviously, this offers a great advantage to industries with a high energy component in their product costs, steel and petrochemical producers for example. However, it also has the benefit of lowering energy bills for all companies, which when combined, equals a $1 billion per day advantage.

So what does all of this mean? Does it mean “Made in the USA” will soon be as ubiquitous as the “Made in China” stickers currently decorating product at the Dollar Store?

Actually, the answer from the Boston Consulting Group is no. Despite a more favorable manufacturing environment, some categories are likely gone for good. This includes high volume, mostly low value products — apparel, shoes and accessories, textiles and fabrics, which require a high amount of labor to produce.

The categories which BCG says have the greatest chance of returning to the United States are average volume, mid-value products that require a moderate amount of labor to produce. These would include things like appliances and electronics, fabricated metals, transportation goods, and machinery.

The BCG estimates the re-shoring of these categories could result in up to three million new jobs by 2020. And it’s probably worth noting that those jobs, like most manufacturing jobs, fill an important pay grade between low paying service jobs and high paying professional jobs. In short, they enable a strong and healthy middle class.

Though these categories are at a tipping point — there’s a good chance they could come back, but an equally good chance these “middle class” jobs will remain offshore — U.S. manufacturers need to work through some issues if these categories are to “tip” in our favor.

The first issue, and some say the biggest, has nothing to do with the economics of manufacturing here or there, but with people. When recently asked by NBC how U.S. manufacturing would affect the price tag of its products, Apple CEO Tim Cook responded by saying, “It’s not so much about price. It’s about the skills.”

In the 25 years since manufacturing began moving offshore, the people with the skills to do the jobs once done at home have moved on. Many are retired, and those young enough to still be in the workforce have been retrained to do something else.

A good example of this is seen at Hypertherm, a Hanover, New Hampshire-based manufacturer of advanced metal cutting systems. The company was once able to find a healthy supply of printed circuit board and component producers for its plasma arc metal cutting systems among fellow New England companies. Today, however, those suppliers — and people — are no longer there, which means that instead of sourcing those products locally, the company is forced to either bring the production of those products in-house or go farther afield.

The people gap is apparent in other areas as well, as was prominently highlighted in a joint study by Deloitte Consulting and the Manufacturing Institute. In the study, two-thirds of participating companies reported a serious shortage of qualified workers. They have jobs and want to hire people, but can’t find the skilled workers they need.

The study discovered that even with high unemployment, 600,000 skilled positions are going unfilled because manufacturers can’t find the machinists, operators, and technicians to fill them.

That was most definitely the case at Hypertherm. Despite consistently being named one of the best employers in the state, with a less than five percent voluntary turnover rate, the company simply could not find the CNC operators it needed to produce its small consumable parts.